Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 3.247174 3.505831 3.798638 4.160462 4.604444 5.144736 5.875604
2025-02-16 2.916603 3.248204 3.651702 4.197593 4.952383 6.029466 7.868579
2025-02-23 2.651406 2.997884 3.435090 4.056173 4.977535 6.439864 9.458882
2025-03-02 2.513147 2.880175 3.358895 4.071345 5.206755 7.238959 12.705202
2025-03-09 2.396920 2.774912 3.280534 4.061339 5.383232 8.031735 17.906949
2025-03-16 2.279405 2.655975 3.167987 3.978357 5.409444 8.534976 24.955142
2025-03-23 2.227094 2.619433 3.165818 4.063322 5.758091 10.069447 90.984612
2025-03-30 2.126153 2.508375 3.044894 3.937328 5.662755 10.319942 NaN
2025-04-06 2.032506 2.402314 2.923893 3.798145 5.513352 10.324456 NaN
2025-04-13 1.961528 2.324526 2.840016 3.713680 5.465015 10.676550 NaN
2025-04-20 1.935859 2.309096 2.848254 3.788101 5.781934 12.836845 NaN
2025-04-27 1.930565 2.321976 2.899982 3.945970 6.350323 17.909885 NaN
2025-05-04 1.891197 2.284955 2.873537 3.961511 6.585972 22.627431 NaN
2025-05-11 1.857953 2.255393 2.857101 3.994884 6.892059 32.300560 NaN
2025-05-18 1.796619 2.181376 2.764198 3.867352 6.683087 31.862624 NaN
2025-05-25 1.766069 2.152120 2.742747 3.881058 6.920706 50.221331 NaN
2025-06-01 1.733559 2.118462 2.711895 3.872020 7.086524 98.294147 NaN
2025-06-08 1.691559 2.068895 2.652022 3.796966 7.006221 141.415795 NaN
2025-06-15 1.678420 2.062506 2.663830 3.873811 7.502025 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.634293 2.007197 2.590140 3.759795 7.238900 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.589856 1.950447 2.512409 3.633384 6.913588 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.555510 1.908450 2.458600 3.556436 6.772346 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 1.546887 1.905607 2.471117 3.624243 7.217201 NaN NaN